基于生态足迹模型的中国渔业资源可持续性及影响因素研究

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关键词：生态足迹；渔业资源可持续性；渔业生态足迹；渔业生态承载力；岭回归；偏最小二乘中图分类号：F326.4；F224；P7 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1005-9857（2025）09-0142-13

Research on the Sustainability of China's Fishery Resources and Its Influencing Factors Based on the Ecological Footprint Model

LI Zongheng，WEI Youzhou

（College of Economics and Management，Shanghai Ocean University，Shanghai ，China）

Abstract：China’sdemand for aquatic products is steadily increasing，however，unchecked expansionof production willinevitably exceed naturalcarrying capacity.This studyconstructs afishery ecological footprint modelandutilizes data from 2003 to 2023 to assessthe sustainabilityof China's fishery resources by re-evaluating the overall fishery ecological footprint and ecologicalcarrying capacity of China's waters.A variable framework encompassiong four dimensions—population，economy，fishery production，and technology，was established.Ridge regression was applied for factor analysis，with partial least squares（PLS）employed forrobustnesstesting.Theresults show high goodness-of-fitand statistical significance.The studyfinds that China'spercapita fishery ecological footprint has been continuously expanding，while per capita fishery ecological carrying capacity remains low and faces downward pressure，indicating severe fishery resource stress.Economic and population factors，to varying degrees，increase the fishery ecological footprint while negatively impacting fisheryecological carying capacity.Fishery production factors havea positiveeffct on the fishery ecological footprint，and their impact onecological carrying capacity appears to be negative.Conversely，technology factors indicate that ecological protection technologies and wastewater treatment investments help alleviate the pressure on fishery resources.The study suggests transitioning to an ecological fishery development model，optimizing the industrial structure，promoting ecological protection technologiesand inovation， advocating for green consumption，and improving fishery resource management regulations toachieve sustainable development in China's fishery sector.

Keywords：Ecological fooprint，Sustainabilityoffisheryresources，Fisheryecological footprint，Fisheryecological carrying capacity，Ridge regression，Partial least squares

0 引言

目前我国水产品产量日益增长，近海渔业资源的开发利用远超其再生能力［1]，水产养殖中饲料残余物、化学农药、抗生素等对渔业水域环境造成了不同程度的污染和破坏[2]。（剩余18092字）