黄河流域土壤侵蚀的气候-植被阈值机制及时序响应特征

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关键词：土壤侵蚀;生态修复;随机森林;InVEST-USLE;XGBoost;Attention-LSTM;黄河流域中图分类号：S157.1;TV882.1 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.09.011用格式：，，.黄河流域土壤侵蚀的气候-植被阈值机制及时序响应特征[J].人民黄河，2025，47（9）：77-84

Climate-Vegetation Threshold Mechanism and Temporal Response Characteristics of Soil Erosion in the Yellow River Basin

DENG Xiangzheng1，²，LIU Yijie²，3， LIU Yuhan³ （1.Beijing Technology and Business University，Beijing lO0048，China；2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and NaturalResoucesResearchCA，Beijing10o0l，China；3.UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences，Beijing9，China） Abstract：TheYellowRiverBasin，atypicalsoilerosion-sensitiveregionin China，wasselectedastheresearchtarget.Byconstructinga multi-modelframework integratingInVEST-USLE，RandomForest，XGBost，ndAtention-LST，andusingmulti-sourceremotessing andclimatedatafrom20to2O23，thedynamicevolutionofoilrosionundersixfturescenariosfrom2024to2O5OwassimulatedThe coupledimpactsofclimatechangeandcologcalestorationmeasuresweresystematicallevauated，revealingthedrivingmechanisad regulatoryreshldsofsoilrosionesultssowtat：a）precipitatioistpriarydriverofsoilrosion，ndvegeaiogulatioexhibitssignifattreshdhacterists；b）hodeldentifict“rentdmnancofsolrosion，withrpredictior foranceforlonges；）sceariosiulatiosealtatuderisiopathas，wiotolocalstorationtl sionmodulusillotiueticease.Whileigesityolicalstoratioansiiiantlyiigaterosiontrds，eoio ductionbenefisedelaedesefidingsprovidequanitativesupportfortezonganddyaicegatorymechanismsofsiladater conservatioineYeloversinItiscommededatcritcalhresholdsandtie-lgctsbcopatedintofutureolical governance policy frameworks to improve the precision and efectiveness of regional ecological management.

Key Words：soil erosion；ecologicalrestoration;RandomForest；InVEST-USLE；XGBoost；Attention-LSTM;YelowRiverBasin

0 引言

土壤侵蚀是当前全球最严重的土地退化形式之一，直接导致土壤资源不可逆损失，间接加剧区域生态系统退化与社会经济的脆弱性[1-3]。（剩余12388字）