雷暴强对流天气下大气污染物扩散风险精准预测研究

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文章编号：1674-6139（2025）08-0189-06

中图分类号：X51文献标志码：B

Accurate Prediction of Atmospheric Pollutant Diffusion RiskunderThunderstormandSevereConvectiveWeather

Ren Jian

（LuoyangMeteorological Bureau，Luoyang471OoO，China）

Abstract：Duetotecomplexityandsudennessofsevereconvectiveweather，turbulencewillaggravatethedifiultyofospric polutantdifusionprediction.Therefore，anacuratepredictionmethodoftmospericpolutantdifusionrisuderseverecovective thunderstormweatherisproposedTakingintoaccunttheconcentrationanddifusionrangeofamosphericpolutants，theisklevelof atmospericpollutantdifusionislasifedAftersimulatingthunderstoadsevereonvectiveweaterscenarios，thedifusionlawof atmosphericpolutantsiseterined，ndthedifusioriskvalueofmospericpolutantsiscalculatedTeurateprdictioofte difusionrisklevelofatmospericpllutantsisobtainedbycomparingteriskvauewithtesetiskcasficationstandards.Teeperimentaltestresultsshowthattheproposedmethodhasalowerpredictionbiasforatmosphericpolutantdifusionriskndicatingthatthe method has higher prediction accuracy.

Keywords：thunderstormweather；severeconvectiveweather；atmosphericpolutant；predictionofdifusionrisk；risklevel

前言

大气环境的动态变化导致污染物迁移与扩散过程复杂多变，受气象因子、地形地貌及湍流作用等多重因素影响。（剩余5665字）