中国农业碳排放特征分析及预测研究

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文章编号：1674-6139（2025）08-0027-06

中图分类号：X22文献标志码：A

Analysis and prediction of agricultural carbon emission characteristics in China

He Rui，Ren Suling

（LanzhouUniversityofFinanceandEconomics，TheScholofStatisticsandDataSciences，Gansu，Lanzhou73O，China）

Abstract：thisstudybasedontheICCprovidesemissionfactormetod，measuredthecarbonemisiosinO0-2O22，caracter isticanalysisofagiculturalcarbonmissons，asedotheAodelselectedthefactorsofagiculturalcarbonmissios，uild theridgeregresionodel，AAodelndgreypredictiomodelstimatetheourountrygriculturalcarbonmissiosi 203，theresultsshowthat：since2O16ourountryagriculturalcarbonreductionefectisremarkable，totalcarbonemiionsdecreased yearbyyear.Agriculturalpractioners，onurbanizationrate，ruralpercapitadisposableincome，percapiaagriculturaloutputvalue arethemainfactorsaectingChina’sagriculuralcarbonemissionsIispredictedthatcarbonemissosinthenxtdecadewillsowa downward trend and will remainin stable small fluctuations fora long time.

Key words：characteristics of agricultural carbon emission；STIRPAT model；ridge regression；ARIMA model

前言

《2023中国农业农村低碳发展报告》提出农业农村领域的碳减排是中国实现碳达峰、碳中和的重点，是进一步加快农业绿色低碳转型，促进农业高质量发展的必然要求。（剩余6286字）