基于粮食安全贡献度的新疆耕地与粮食供求格局变化及影响研究

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关键词：耕地变化；粮食供求格局；消费统计法；粮食安全贡献度；新疆中图分类号：F326.11；F323.211 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-6819（2025）06-1648-10 doi：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0706

Changesand impacts of cultivated landand grain supplyanddemand pattern in Xinjiang based on the degree of food security contribution

LIUShuxin1， WUSIMANJIANG Paruke1，2， SHAMUXI Ayituerxun 1，2* ， CHE Lili'，GONG Min’，ZHOU Hongtao1 （1.SchlofPublicdmiistration（Law），injangAgricuturalUniversityUuqi2，hina;2.aturalesourcegt Innovation and Development Research Centerof Xinjiang Agricultural University，Urumqi 83oo52，China）

Abstract：Toexpore Xijangcultivatedlandandgrainsupplyanddemandstructurechangesandisontributiontonatioalfoodsurity andtheefectsofcultiatedlandcangeonfoodproduction，tissdysedlandusedyamicstoalyetespatialandtempoalhanges ofcultivatedandndgainplatingareainXijangombindwithteconsumptiostatisticsmethodandtecotributiodgoffood security（SP）odeltostimatetecontributioofXinjiangtotenationalandregioalgainseurityinXinjiang，andfurtherlarifid thespatio-temporalchangesofgansupplyanddemandinXinjang，usedsensitivityodeltodsribethimpactofculivatedlandea changeongrainproductionfrom2Ooto2O20.Theresultsshowedthat，first，theoverallcultivatedlandandgrainsownareacreased steadily，respectively increasing 2.877×106hm2 and 8.070×105hm2 ; wheat and corn account for about 80% of the area，and the corn planted areaincreasedbynearlyonehandredpercentduring2Oyears，whilethewheatplantedareadecreasedslightly.Second，thegrainupply wasalwaysgreaterthandemand，andsuplyanddmandgaduallytransitionfromatightbalancetoacertainsurplusspace;Third，the contribution of Xinjiang to national food securitywas always positive，and the average was 2.3% ，makingacertaincontribution.Forth，the contributionofdierntstatestXijang'sfoodsecuityaredsigiiantlyinspaandtecenterofgravityshiftdfromsouthtooth. Reasonableprotectionofcultivatedlandndthepositiveinfluenceoflndplanningldtoanaugmentbetweecultivatedlandareaand grainproduction.Theresearchshowsthatscientificallymeasuringregional grainsuplyanddemandbasedonthecontributiondegreof fodecurityisofgreatsigcanceforpromotigregioalgainorkandfoulatingrelevantpoliciesforensuringnatioalfoodsurity

Keywords：cultivatedlandchange;grainsupplyandemandpaen;statisticalmethodofonsumption;contrbutiontofoodsurity; Xinjiang

耕地是保障国家及地区粮食安全的重要根基，守住18亿亩（1亩 =1/15hm2 耕地红线是保障粮食安全的底线。（剩余16616字）