基于PLUS-InVEST模型的新疆土地利用碳排放与碳储量时空演变分析及模拟

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中图分类号：F301.2；X321 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-6819（2025）06-1636-12 doi：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0732

Analysis and simulation of the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon emision/storage of land use in Xinjiang basedonPLUS-InVESTmodel

LI Jianqiang1， ZHANG Feiyun1*，LI Qian2，3，4，TENGLun1，LI Daqiang1， ZHOU Xinying1

（1.Colegeofublicdmiistratio（Lawhool），XijangAgicuuralUnversityUruqiO，Chna;2.Xijangstitef EcologyndGeogaphChineseAcadeyfSienesUrumqi83O，China;3.XinjiangKeyLboratoryofWaterCyeleandWaterUse inAridRegion，Urumqi30ol1，China; 4.Xinjiang XinyuanFieldScientificObservationandResearch StationofSnowAvalanchein Tianshan Mountains，Xinyuan 8358Oo， China）

Abstract：Landusechangeshavesignificantimpactonregionalcarboncycling.Itissignificanttoanalyzethespatialandtemporal variationpaternofcarbonemisionandcarbonstorageandtheirbalanceforoptimizingthelandusestructureandpromotingthetargetof carbonpeakingandcarbonneutrality.Thecarbonemisionandstorage werecalculatedbyInVESTmodelusinglandusedatain Xinjng from2000to2O2O.ThecarbonemisionandstorageweresimulatedbyPLUSmodelinthefuture.Theresultindicatedthatthecarbon emisionsincreasedataateof8.2478mlliontosperearfromto0.Theenergyconsumptiocontributionofconstructiland was more than 95% tocarbonemisions.Thecarbonstoragecreased first，thendecreased，then increased from 2Ooo to 2020.The contribution of carbon storage from grassland accounted for 47% . It was carbon sink state from 20o0 to 202O with carbon emission to storageratiolessthanO.O2.Theregionalmaximumcarbonemissiontostorageratio（5.42）expandedwhichlocatedincityareas. Constructionland directlycausedtheincrease ofregionalcarbon storage ratio.The increaserateofconstructionlandarea（ 108.48% ）was lower than that of carbon emission to storage ratio in construction land（ 625.57% ）.The carbon emission to storage ratio increased with rates of0.0228，00275andO.O221per10yearsunderthescenarioofnaturaldevelopment，productionconstructionandecological conservation.Theregionalcarboneisiontostorageratiowouldreach21.32in26o.Productionconstructionscenariogavatethe carbonmbalae.Eologicalonservatiosenarielieetereasigofrbonmissotoorageatioutitsctisle carbonemissonandtheareaoftheconstructionlandshouldbecontroledseriouslyinthefutureforthecarbonpeakingandcarbon neutrality target.

Keywords：land use; carbon emission and storage;carbon balance; PLUS-InVEST model; Xinjiang

全球气候变暖已成为不争的事实。（剩余17407字）