基于PLUS-InVEST模型的博斯腾湖流域碳储量时空演变及预测
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关键词：碳储量;时空演变;PLUS-InVEST模型;土地利用变化;博斯腾湖流域中图分类号：X171.1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-6819（2025）05-1267-10 doi：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0736
Spatial and temporal evolution and prediction of carbon stock in Bosten Lake basin based onPLUS-InVEST model
LI Daqiang1，ZHANG Feiyun1"，LI Qian2，34，ZHOU Hongtao1，LIJianqiang1，ZHOU Xinying1
（1.SchoolofPublicAdministration（LawSchol），XijngAgriculturalUniversityUrumqi83oo52China;2.XinjiangIsiutef EcologyandGeographyhineseAcademyofSienes，Urumqi8301hina;3.XinjangKeyLaboratoryofWaterCycleandWater UtilizationinAridRegios，Urumqi8Ol1，China;4XinjangIstituteofFeldSientificObservationofTianshanSowAvalas， Xinyuan ， China）
Abstract：Itisimportantoexploretheimpactoflandusechangeoncarbonstockinthewatershedsofaridzoneswithfragileolgical environments，hichisimportantforthantenancefologicalalanceadthevelpmentofosstemservics.issudalyd andsimulatedthespatialandtemporalchangesofcarbonstock in BostenLakebasinbycouplingPLUSandInVESTmodels，usingfour periodsoflandusedatain1990，2o0，2010and2020，andbysimulating thelandusechangesin2030undernaturaldevelopment scenario，sustainabledevelopmentsenarioandeconomicdevelopmentsenario.Theesultsshowedthatfrom990toO2，thecarbon stockinBostenLakebasin increasedlinearlyatarateof4.85 % ，withanincrease of1.79x1Ot.Theincreaseofcultivated land area was the mainreasonfortheriseofcarbonstockinBostenLakebasin.Froml990to2O20，theareaswithhighcarbonstockinBostenLakebasinwere mainlylocatedinthewest，thenorth，andthenorthwesternTienShan MountainRangeandaroundtheKaiduRiver.Higerelevation areasandcultivatedlandof879-1299mand grassareasof2600-3300min BostenLakeandsouth-centralpartofthebasin，and graduallexpanddtoigherelevatioareas;lowvalueareasofcarbostockwereconentratedinthebareareasof879-OmnYanqi basin，oasisplainsndeacockiverreainthentral，otheastendouthwestenartofteasinndgaduallysakabon stockintearaboe3sodareasg.I3，thtscearisofbotcksstillsodniceasingtrdiha rise of SD（sustainable development scenario） > BAU（natural development scenario） > ED（economic development scenario）;the trend of carbonstockchangesintheaeaabove35OOmintestudyareamaintainedtecharacteristicsofthechangesinO2O.Teindiecffect of snow and ice on the increase of carbon stock should not be ignored.
KeyWords：carbonstock;spatialand temporal evolution; PLUS-InVESTmodel; land use change; Bosten Lake basin
20世纪中后期以后，人类活动范围扩张，温室气体大量排放，IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）第六次评估报告已经证实全球气候变暖的趋势仍在继续。（剩余18104字）
