洱海流域土地利用冲突时空演变及多情景模拟预测

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关键词：土地利用冲突；MOP模型;PLUS模型；格局优化；洱海流域中图分类号：X321；F301.24 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-6819（2025）05-1217-12 doi：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0298

Spatialand temporal evolutionof landuseconflicts in theErhai basinand predictionbymulti-scenario simulation

HEZiling123，CHENYunchun，GUOXiaofei，ZHANGYunt，ZHANGYing，，HUANGYunan1，2，LUXingpeng，SHYuzhu1， ZENG Weijun1，2，3*

（1.ColegeofWaterRsoucs，YungluralUnesiKuing，ina;EngieingesearchCeterfoG FarmlandandCarbonEmissionReductioninYunanUniversities，Kunming65O2O1，China；3.InternationalJointResearchnd DevelopmentCenterforSmartAgricultureandWaterSfetyinYunnanProvice，Kuming6521，China;4.ColegeofResousnd Environment， Yunnan Agricultural University，Kunming 65o2O1， China）

Abstract：Iordertoacuratelyidentifyandmeasureregioallanduseonflictsandcearlypresenttherspatialandtemporalevolution thisstudytakestheErhaibasinastheresearchobject，accuratelyextractfourperiodsoflandusedatabycombiningmultiscale segmentationnddostagorit，ostuctlandueoasurtodel，stemaiallyaleraes lawsofspatial-tempralevoutionoflandusecolctsfro1992to022，andiovativelyoupletheMultiectivePlag（OP）andtheSmulationofLandUseChanges（PLUS）models tosimulatethelandusepatersandcalculatethelanduseconflictsunderfour developmentscenariosin2035.TheresultsshowedthatthelanduseconflictsintheErhaibasinfrom1992to2O22showedanincreasing andhedecresidieofcatedtedoingasofitdldi inthenaturalecologicalreservessuchastheCangshan MountainandtheErhaiSea.Intheresultsofthedistributionofthelanduse structureofthewatersheduderdiferentdevelopmentsenarios，theonstructionlandinteeconomicdevelopmentscenario（ED）was significantlyexpanded，withanicreaseof5.5percetagepintsi5comparedwithO2，andtheeologicalprotetioad developmentsar）idoeetiotologaloealprotetineatesditestnd andwaterareaeingteoscaged，itceaseof.，7ndOprtagepotsspecielymparedithlete sustainabledevelopmentscenario（SD）focus moreonecologicalprotectionofthewatershed.TheareachangesofeachcategoryintheSD weremorebalanced，whichwasintemiddlerangebetweentheEDndTDscenarios.TheSscenariohasthelowestleveloflanduse conflictandtheoptimalpatenlayoutinthewatershdasawole，withapatchdensityvalueofO.18andanedgedensity（ED）value of7.9，withaorebalacedhanginteareaofchategorythanineoterseariosndwittheowestdegreeofragmetatioand complexityofthelandscapepatt.TheSDsenariocanobtaintheoptimallnduselayoutofErhaibasininO35undercurrentpolicy planning.

Keywords：land use conflict; MOPmodel; PLUS model; pattern optimization;Erhai basin

近年来，人类活动影响了土地利用格局，建设用地大量扩张，侵占了林地、草地和湿地等生态用地，导致土地利用冲突不断加重[1-4。（剩余18851字）