大都市区耕地非粮化驱动机制及变化趋势预测

——以北京市为例

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关键词：耕地非粮化；土地利用转移矩阵；全局空间自相关;GM-ARIMA-BP组合模型;驱动因 中图分类号：F323.211 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-6819（2025）05-1206-11 doi：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0552

Driving mechanism and change trend prediction of non-grain conversionof cultivated land in metropolitan areas：taking Beijing as an example

ZHUHuimin，XUQiang，ZHENGYanna，CUI Jie，HU Yajin，MENGQingxiang* （Collge of the Resources and Environmental Sciences，Henan Agricultural University，Zhengzhou 45o046， China）

Abstract：ToexploetecrentstatusandspatialdiferetiationcharacteristisofnongainconversnofultivatdlandNGC）in metropolitanareasanddentifyitsdrivingfactors，thissudytookBejingasthresearhbect.Weemplodlandusetranertrix analyzelandusecangsieifroOOto2Aditioalyobalsatialutocoelationasuldtexamiethatialad temporalevolutionofteGCOCL，ndtheStatamodelwasaplidtovestigatethedrivingfactos.Furtherore，implemenedG ARIMA-Pcombinedmodeltopredictthetrendsinnon-graincultivationfrom2023to2035.Ourfindingsindicatedthattheareaof arablelanieigiallyasdforesbeqntleasig，ithotablersfoatioiablendutlily shifting towards construction land.Over time，the proportion of non-grain production offarmland rose from 29.57% in 2010 to 52.13% in 2020，exhibitedafluctatingupwardtrendSpatiall“centesuoud”difusionpaternasbsered，charactezedbyositive corelation.Kuenngfctosuddtesiftsidetpoplatiostaetocitteteftbe theprimarysector，andproductionperunitarea，allofwhichdemonstrateddiminishingefects.Predictionsfromthecombinedmodel suggestedthatteGLineijing，swellascossalldistrictsdoutiswouldoniuetoexbifuctuatigupwadtred ThisstudyconcudesthatteOCLineiingisifluecedbobinatioofaral，ooicndialonditiose enhancedregulationshouldbeaccompaniedbyclasifiedmanagementandcontrolmeasures，whicharecrucialforsafeguardingfood securityinthemetropolitanarea.

Keyords：nongrainconversionofcultivatedland;landusetransfermatrix;obalspatialautocorelation;GM-AIA-Bcobind model; driving factor

随着全球局部形势的变化，国际粮食市场供应的不确定性叠加全球粮食生产的供需矛盾加剧[，保障粮食安全的重要性和紧迫性日益显著2。（剩余16153字）