基于MaxEnt模型预测近现代和未来草地早熟禾的适宜分布区

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中图分类号：S688.4 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2025）09-2992-11

doi：10.11733/j.issn.1007-0435.2025.09.023

Prediction of the Near-Modern and Future Potential Distribution of Poa pratensis L. in Response to Climate Change Based on the MaxEnt Model

ZHAO Jia-rui1，WANG Peng-sen1，GOU Yang1，ZENG Yuan1， JIN Xue-mei¹， LIU Gang²，QIMEI Lamu1.³， ZHOU Ji-qiong1* （1.College of Pratacultural Science，Sichuan Agricultural University，Chengdu，Sichuan Province 6ll13o，China; 2.Chengdu Instituteof Biology，Chinese AcademyofSciences，Chengdu，Sichuan Province 61O041，China; 3.Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau of Qushui County，Lhasa，Xizang 85O6OO，China）

Abstract：Forecasting thepotentiallysuitabledistributionareas ofPoapratensis L.under current and future cli mate conditions across the country can laya theoretical foundation for the precise cultivation of Kentucky bluegrass（Poa pratensis L.）and ecological restoration of grassland，and reduce the economic and ecological losses caused by future climate warming. In this study，data of 23 ecological factors at 84 distribution points of P pratensiswere collected. Through the maximum entropy（MaxEnt）model and ArcGIS system，the main influencing factors of the suitable distribution of P ：pratensis .and its potential distribution pattern were analyzed. The results show that the four main ecological factors，including human disturbance index，altitude，precipitation in the coldest season，and precipitation in the wettest month affected the distribution of P ：pratensis.Under present climate conditions，the total suitable area of P pratensis.is 6.3036×106km2 ，and the highly suitable area is 1.0644×106km2 .It is mainly concentrated in Xizang，Sichuan，Qinghai，Yunnan，Gansu，and Shanxi. Under future climate scenarios，the total suitable area of P . pratensis . generally showed a decreasing trend. The suitable area in the SSP37O scenario decreased by 4.126×105km2 . This study can provide an objective theoretical reference basis for the rational planning and layout and sustainable utilization of P .pratensis. Key Words：MaxEnt model;Poa pratensis;Climate change;Potential distribution area

近年来，大量研究结果显示，利用优质牧草建设人工或半人工草地修复高寒地区退化草地，可以提升饲草产量与品质，缓解天然草地的放牧压力，加快退化草地生态恢复[1-2]。（剩余15540字）