气候变化情景下新疆草地类常见植物潜在分布格局模拟

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中图分类号：S812 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2025）09-2973-19

uUI：IU.11IOO/J.ISSI.IUV7-U4oO.∠UZO.UJ.UZZ

Simulation of Potential Distribution Patterns of Common Plant Species in Xinjiang Grassland under Climate Change Scenarios

JINLian-wu1， ZHAO Jin²，SHAO Qian-ying²，JI Bao-ming4，LI Xue-feng5，LI kai-hui 2，6 ， SUI Xiao-qing1*，GONG Yan-ming2，6*

（1.CollegeofrataceiicualUesityUgo；gituteoolodaChineseAcadeyfiences，UruiXijag83ol1Chia;3SholofGeogaphyandorism，XijangNalUniversityUri Xinjiang304;4lofrtacureaassdeFrestryesite;5atatRegistrationCenteofgUygurutonouRegionUruiigina；BbuklpinGasadei Research Station of Xinjiang，Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture，Xinjiang 84l314，China）

Abstract：Explorating the distribution patterns of common plants in Xinjiang grassand and the influence of climate factors are conducive to strengthening the sustainable development of grasland. Based on the geographic distribution data of 32 plants and19 bioclimatic factors，the accuracyof the model was verified by combining AUC value. The results showed that precipitation had a significant efecton forage in high altitude areas.For example，theannual precipitation mainly affected the forage grassof Oreosalsola abrotanoides and Seriphidium borotalense. Seriphidium transiliense and Leucopoa olgae were more affected by the annual mean temperature. The prediction of future climate scenario shows that the area of suitable area will increase as a whole.For example，under the SSPl26 scenario，Alhagi camelorum expanded to the northwest in southern Xinjiang with an expansion rate of 2.27% . However，the spike of Festuca kryloviana decreased in Tacheng prefecture， northern Hami area and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture，with a reduction rate of 1.69% .Under the SSP245 scenario， Kalidium foliatum expanded to northern Xinjiang，with an expansion rate of 2.22% . Poacynum hendersonii expanded to Tarim Basin with an expansion rate was 10.98% . The simulation accuracy of MaxEnt model are both greater than O.85 under the two climate scenarios，showing high reliability.This study provides an important basis for the sustainable utilization and protection of common plants in Xinjiang.

Key words：Natural forage; Suitable area;MaxEnt model; Bioclimatic factors;Climate change

新疆草地作为中国草地类型最丰富的地区之一，不仅构成了新疆自然资源陆地生态系统的主体，而且在维护生物多样性、调节气候、保持土壤水源和改善环境质量等方面发挥着至关重要的作用[1]。（剩余16597字）