中国海洋渔业生态安全时空演变与驱动因素分析

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中图分类号：S937 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1008-0864（2025）09-0224-16

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Marine Fishery Ecological Security in China

CUI Feng'，LIU Jingzhoul*，QIAN Yixin²， CHEN Guiying² （1.ColegeofMarineLivingResourcesandManagement，ShanghaiOceanUniversity，Shanghai20l3O6，China;2.Collegeof EconomicsManagement，Shanghai Ocean University，Shanghai 2O13O6，China）

Abstract：Inorder topromote thehigh-qualitydevelopmentof marine fisheries，anevaluationindex systemof marine fisheryecological security wasconstructed based on the CAS-DPSIR（complex adaptive system-driving forces， pressure，stage，impact，responses）model，and the temporalandspatial diferentiation characteristicsand significantdriving factorsof marine fishery ecological security were analyzed bythegrey correlation-TOPSIS （techniquefororder preferencebysimilarity to idealsolution）model，Theil indexandsystem GMM（generalized method of moments）model.The resultsshowed that the marine fishery ecological security in Chinashowed a fluctuating upward trend inthe study time，especiallafter 2O16，except Hainan，Jiangsu，Shanghai and Tianjin， the marine fisheryecological securitylevel maintained a good development situation.From 2010to 2O16，there was analternatingdistributionpaternofloworhigh safety gradesbyprovince，andfrom2O18 to2O22，aspatial pattern was basicaly formed with Jiangsu and Shanghaias the midpoint，andthe northand south were high and the middle waslow.With theoverallimprovementof theecological security levelofmarinefisheriesin China，the spatial diffrences wereenlarged，andthe spatial diferences within theregion werepresentedas Bohai Rim>Pan-Pearl River Delta>Yangtze River Delta.The status of marine fishery resources，fishing capacity，marine environmental regulation and fishery administration management capacitywere significant driving factors for the spatiotemporal evolution of marine fisheryecological security.In the future，the spatial development differenceof marine fishery ecological security level shouldbenarrowed from 2 levelsof regional strategiesand factors，a marine fishery production pattern with ecological priorityand economic sustainabilityshould be formed underthe guidance of green development，and the law enforcement of marine fisheryadministration should be strengthened by adhering to the rule of law.

Keywords：marine fishery ecological security；space-time evolution；driving factors；complex adaptive system; system GMM model

海洋渔业生态安全水平对促进蓝色经济高质量发展、推动海洋生态系统平衡与人海和谐共生的现代化进程具有重要意义。（剩余13767字）