高血压患者心血管疾病发病风险的Rothman-Keller模型构建

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The Construction of Rothman-Keller Model for the Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Hypertensive Patients

QIAN Xiyan1，TANG Yifan1，MEI Kewen²，GAO Chunhong³，FAN Yunxia²，LI Tingru1

（1.Departmentof Geriatric Cardiology，The First Afliated Hospitalof Nanjing Medical University，Nanjing 2100， Jiangsu，China；2.DepartmentofGeriatrics，heFrstAfliated HospialofNanjing Medical University，Nanjing2， Jiangsu，China；3.DepartmentofNursing，The FirstAfiliatedHospitalofNanjing Medical University，Nanjing 21000， Jiangsu，China）

【Abstract】ObjectiveToconstructaRothman-Keler modelforasessngtheriskofcardiovasculardisease（CVD）inhypertensive populationsandtodeterminetheclasificationofdiseaserisklevelsbasedonthemodel.MethodsThisstudycomprehensivelysearchd PubMed，mbase，Webofience，AHLandoterdatabassfopubiclvailableEnglishliteraturepublshdbeforeovebe1. Relevantdatafromicludedarticesereetracted，andamea-analysisasonductedusingRevan5.3software.Relevantparaetesere calculated through OR values and exposure rates，and the Rothman-Keler model was established.The risk level boundaries were determined usingthemethdofbinomialdistibutionfunctios.ResultsAtotalof6Oarticleswerefinallncludedformeta-analysis，yeldingsk factors：malededacede，igolesterol，owlomelrflatioatebeesiaoicaliioto hypertensiontratoetesiotrolepresodeeoalistioucofscto randomlygenerated2OOoOsetsofdata，whichwereinputintotheRothman-KelermodeltoplottheincidenceriskcurveforCVDin hypertensivepatients.ThevaluesO.3737andO.6O54wereselectedastheboundariesforlow，medium，andhighrisk.ConclusionThe Rothman-KellrodelcostructedinssudyfossessngteiskofCVinertesivepatintsismpleandfeasible，an acuracyndpdictieabilityIasistientifinghigiskpatitsmongheresieolatiosoaeveloCoig primary preventionof CVD，and has certain reference significance.

【Keywords】Hypertension;Cardiovascular disease;Influencing factor;Meta-analysis;Rothman-Keller model

心血管疾病（cardiovasculardisease，CVD）作为造成全球范围内疾病负担的主要疾病，高患病率及高死亡率是其公认的特点[]。（剩余8927字）