基于耦合协调度的长期护理保险筹资水平适宜度研究

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AbstractObjective：Tofocusontheappopriatenessoflongtermcareisurae（LTCI）financing levels.Itmeasuredthecoordination betwenLTCIfinancinglevelsndregionaleconomiccpacity，aswellasagingpressure.Theoalistoprovideempiricalevidenceand poliyrecommendationsforsustainableLTCIdevelopment.Methods：Webuiltacouplingcoordinationdegreemodelwiththree subsystems：fiaingleveloicvelopet，doulatiuctue.Wselectedteecitissmples：cityX（osu）， cityN（centralJangsu），andcityC（southeJiangsu）.Datacaefrofeldsureys，tatisticalyarbooks，ndgovermentorts.We usedtheentropymethodtodetermineindicatorweights.Wecalculatedcompositeindicesforeachsubsystemandasesedthecoupling coordinationlevels.Results：Theresultsshowedsignficantregionaldiferencesanddynamicchanges.CityNimprovedsteadilyand reacheda"barelycoordinated"stage.CityXremainedtrappedinastateof"slightimbalance"attheantagonisticstage，plaguedbythe "scisorsect"eteenfiedamoutfiacing，populationutfo，ndisingsiceosts.Iotrast，onomicalldevelity experiencedamismatchbetweenhigheconomiccarringcapacityandlowfinancinglevelsduetotherigidmodelof"fixedcontribtions coupledwithmedicalinsurancedependency"causingitsouplingcoordinationdegreetoshiftfom"slightimbalance"to"onthevergof imbalance".Conclusions：TheappropriatenessofLTCIfinancing dependsonmultiplefactors.These includefiancingmechanisms， populationstructureandpaymentstructures.Itisalsocloselylinkedtoregionaleconomicdevelopment.Werecommendestablisinga long-term "proportional financing + dynamic adjustment" mechanism.We also suggest implementing region-specific strategies based on a two-dimensionalmatrixof"economiclevelagingdegre".Finallweproposeoptimiingthelnkagebtwnpaymentstucturesand financing mechanisms.

Keywordslong-term care insurance; financing;appropriateness;coupling coordinationdegree model; elderly care

世界卫生组织（WHO）指出，老龄化带来的长期照护需求激增已成为各国社会保障体系面临的核心挑战之一。（剩余5997字）