基于倾向性评分匹配的老年人新型冠状病毒感染死亡影响因素分析

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中图分类号： R181.2AA+3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-503X（2025）03-0375-07

DOI：10. 3881/j. issn. 1000-503X.16256

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Death in the Elderly With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Based on Propensity Score Matching

CHEN Ying'，HUANG Haiping1，LI Xin1，CHAI Sijie²，YE Jiali²，ZHOU Dingz 3 ， ZHANG Tao' 1 DepartmentofEpidemiologyand Health Statistics，West China Schoolof Public Health/WestChinaFourth Hospital，SichuanUnivity， Chengdu ，China ²Sichuan Tianfu New District Public Health Center，Chengdu 610213，China （20 3 Departmentof Pneumoconiosis/Departmentof Respiratoryand Critical Care Medicine，West China School of Public Health/West China Fourth Hospital，Sichuan University，Chengdu ，China

Correspondingauthor：ZHANG Tao Tel：O28-85508845，E-mail：scdxzhangtao@163.com

ABSTRACT： Objective To analyze the influencing factors of death in the elderly with coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19）.MethodsThe case data of death caused by COVID-19 in West China Fourth Hospital from January1 to July8，2O23 were collected，and surviving cases from the West China Elderly Health Cohort infected with COVID-19 during the same period were selected as the control. LASSO-Logistic regression was adopted to analyze the data after propensity score matching and the validityof the model was verified by drawing the receiveroperating characteristic curve.ResultsA total of 3239 COVID-19 survivorsand142 deaths with

COVID-19 were included. The results of LASSO-Logistic regresson showed that smoking （ OR=3.33 ， 95%CI= 1.46 - 7.59， P=0.004 ），stroke（ OR=3.55 ， 95%CI=1.15-10.30 ， P=0.022 ），malignant tumors（ OR= 19.93， 95%CI=8.52-49.23 ， P<0.001 ），coronary heart disease（ OR=7.68 ， 95%CI=3.52-17.07 ， （20 P<0.001 ），fever（ OR=0.51 ， 95%CI=0.26-0.96 ， P=0.042 ），difficulty breathing or asthma symptoms （ OR=21.48 ， 95%（7%=9.44-51.95 ， P<0.001 ），and vomiting（ OR=8.19 ， 95%CI=2.87-23.58 ， P<0.001 ）increased the risk of death with COVID-19.The prediction model constructed based on the influencingfactors achieved an area under the curve ofO.889 in the test set. ConclusionsSmoking，stroke，malignant tumors，coronary heart disease，fever，breathing dificultyor asthma symptoms，and vomiting were identified as keyfactors influencing the death risk in COVID-19.

Key words： coronavirus disease 2O19； influencing factor; LASSO regression； propensity score matchingActaAcadMedSin，2025，47（3）：375-381

新型冠状病毒感染（coronavirusdisease2019，COVID-19）的疾病负担不仅限于急性期，其中长期后果也将显著影响患者生活质量，加重卫生系统负担，对全球健康造成严重威胁[1]。（剩余9894字）