2000一2024年NBA选秀体能测试指标预测效能分析

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中图分类号：G841 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1009-9840（2025）02-0045-07

Predictive Effectiveness of NBA Draft Combine Physical Fitness Indicators from 2000 to 2024

LI Junhua' ， XIA Jiaoyang

（1. Graduate School， China University of Petroleum （ East China ）， Qingdao 266580，Shandong， China; 2. Dept. of P.E.， China University of Petroleum （East China）， Qingdao266580， Shandong）

Abstract：This study aims to explore the critical physical fitness indicators influencing player selection in the National Basketball Association Draft Combine （NBA DC） from 2OOO to 2024. By collecting and analyzing the physical test data of basketball players participating in the NBA DC and conducting Receiver Operating Characteristic （ROC ） curve analysis， the study identifies that players‘ success in meeting certain threshold values， such as the Max Vertical Leap and the Lane Agility Time， correlates significantly with draft success rate. Players who meet these thresholds have a draft success rate 1.56 to 2.89 times higher than those who do not （ OR=1.557-2.889 ， P<0. 05 ）. Longitudinally， as playing styles have evolved， the effctiveness of physical fitness tests in distinguishing players has also changed. Notably， the Lane Agility Time test， representing agility， shows a significant increase in its ability to discriminate among players， particularly for interior players （ AUC=0.5949 for 2000-2012 ， AUC=0.6635 for 2013-2024， P

Key words： NBA Draft; physical fitness testing; ROC analysis

在当今全球竞技体育迅速进步的背景下，科学化的体能训练已成为提高竞技体育训练科学化水平的关键环节。（剩余8973字）