“双碳”背景下绿色金融能否促进农业碳减排？

——基于试点政策、技术溢出、外部竞争效应视角

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中图分类号：F124;X701 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2025）05-0547-12

Can Green Finance Promote Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction under the Dual Carbon Goals？ From the Perspective of Pilot Policies， Technological Spillover，andExternalCompetition Effects

SHI Xiongtian’， CHEN Yang

1.SchoolofBusinessAdministrationandTourismManagement，Yunnan University，Kunming 65o5oo，China; 2.School ofEconomics，YunnanUniversity，Kunming65o5oo，China）

Abstract： Using a spatial lag model， this study systematically analyzes the impact mechanism of green finance on agricultural carbon emissons in China under the background of the“dual carbon” goals. The research covers provinces in eastern，central，and western China，with a particular focus on the roles of green finance pilot policies，technological spilover effects，and external competition effects on agricultural carbon emissions across diffrent regions and contexts.The results reveal that green finance has a significant carbon reduction effect in provinces with close economic ties or geographic proximity， exhibiting clear spatial spillover effects.In some pilot regions，the emission reduction effect of green finance is weaker than that in non-pilot regions.Technological spillover effects effectively enhance the carbon reduction fect of green finance，but the marginal effect decreases as green technologies are widely promoted.Furthermore，agricultural agglomeration demonstrates a threshold efect on the emission reduction efect of green finance.The study concludes that the green finance policy system should be improved according to regional characteristics，low-carbon pilot resources should be optimally allocated，green technology innovation and application should be promoted，and the level of agricultural agglomeration should be appropriately guided.

Key Words： green finance; agricultural carbon emissions; spatial spillover efects; technological spillover effects;agricultural agglomeration

0 引言

随着全球气候变化加剧，我国政府在“十四五”规划中明确提出了实现碳达峰、碳中和的“双碳”目标，显示出国家为应对全球气候危机所作出的坚定承诺。（剩余12914字）