技术创新驱动下的陕西交通业低碳路径研究
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中图分类号：F512.7；X322 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2025）05-0509-11
Low-Carbon Path for Shaanxi’ s Transportation Industry Driven by Technological Innovation
XUJian1，ZHANGYiyi²，YANYifan1，SONGJie1 （1.College ofManagement，Xi’an UniversityofScienceand Technology，Xi’an71Oo54，China; 2.Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Materials Group Co.，Ltd.，Xi’ an71oo65，China）
Abstract： The transportation industry has become the third most important sector for national energy consumption and carbon emissions，and the transportation industry in Shaanxi Province has developed rapidly.To achieve the Dual Carbon Gods，it is urgent to promote the low-carbon transformation of the transportation sector within the province.Based on 2O22 data of energy consumption terminals in Shaanxi’ s transportation industry，a low-carbon emisson LEAP model was developed to categorize the sector into three divisions： intercity passenger transport， freight transport， and urban passenger transport.The model predicts energy demand and carbon emissions under diffrent future scenarios（policy scenario， 2 C scenario，and technological innovation scenario），and analyzes emission reduction potentials，providing references for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan.The results indicate： The carbon peak in Shaanxi’ s transportation sector wil occur between 2O3O and 2O40，with a peak scale of approximately 51.6 to 55 million tons.Freight transportation is the primary source of carbon emissions in Shaanxi’ s transportation sector， accounting for about 76% of total sectoral emissions. Under the technological innovation scenario，carbon emission intensity decreases by 3.2% ，enabling the achievement of the carbon emission intensity target outlined in Shaanxi’ s 14th Five-Year Plan for transportation.Based on these findings，to attain the Dual Carbon Goals，Shaanxi Province should prioritize the folowing initiatives in its 15th Five-Year transportation plan： encouraging technological innovation and application， optimizing the transportation structure，constructing a green and low-carbon transportation network，and developing an intelligent transportation system.
Key Words： Dual Carbon Goals; Shaanxi transportation industry; technological innovation; LEAP model; scenario analysis; low carbon emission path
0 引言
应对气候变化、降低温室气体排放已成为全球共识，《巴黎协定》提出将地球升温幅度限制在工业化前水平的 1.5qC 之内[1]，中国承诺2030 年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和。（剩余16055字）
