基于土地利用变化的长三角地区土壤碳储量时空演变与驱动力分析
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Spatial-temporal evolution and driving force analysis of soil carbon stock in the Yangtze River Delta region based on land use change
LIUFawei，ZHANGZhihan （Schoolof Financeand Administration，Anhui Universityof Finance and Economics，Bengbu 23303o，China）
Abstract： Exploring the carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is of great significance to mitigate global climate issues and promote sustainable economic development. Taking the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object，land use scenarios in 2O3O and 2O5O under natural development， cultivated land protection，and ecological protection scenarios were predicted based on the InVEST and FLUS models. Using the predicted land use data under the three development scenarios，the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta from 20oo to 205O was analyzed，and the geographical detector model was employed to explore the driving factors of carbon storage in the region，providing a scientific basis for future planning and development in the Yangtze River Delta.The results indicate that from 2ooO to 202o，the land use in the Yangtze River Delta was characterized by a continuous expansion of construction land and a gradual reduction in the areas of cultivated land，forest，and grassland. In the predicted years of 2O3O and 2o5O，only the natural development scenario continued the trend observed from 20oo to 2O2O，while the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios inhibited the growth of construction land area. From 2000 to 202O，thecarbon storage level decreased annually.In 2030and 2050，under the three development scenarios，the carbon storage levels from high to low were the ecological protection scenario，the cultivated land protection scenario，and the natural development scenario. Among the driving factors of carbon storage，vegetation coverage showed the strongest explanatory power，and the interaction factors were characterized by two-factor enhancement and single-factor nonlinear weakening.
Key Words： carbon stock;land use; InVEST-FLUS model;drivers；spatial-temporal evolution
全球气候变暖问题日趋严重，如何减少碳排放并提高碳储存成为人类面临的难题[1-2]。（剩余14024字）
