慢性阻塞性肺疾病病人运动性低氧发生风险预测模型的建立

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Establishment of risk prediction model of occurrence of exercise induced desaturation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

WEI Meiying， HUANG Yuechu， WANG Minqing

The People's Hospital of Hechi， Guangxi 547000 China

Corresponding Author  WEI Meiying， E⁃mail： wmyweimei@163.com

Abstract  Objective：To explore influencing factors of occurrence of exercise induced desaturation（EID） in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD），and establish risk prediction model.Methods：A total of 181 COPD patients admitted to the respiratory department of our hospital from January 2021 to October 2022 was selected as the research subjects by convenient sampling method.General information of the patients was investigated，and lung function，EID，fatigue，and difficulty in breathing of patient were evaluated.Results：Logistic regression analysis showed that COPD lung function grading，forced expiratory volume in one second，score of Ratings of Perceived Exertion， and score of Modified Medical Research Council were the influencing factors of the occurrence of EID in patients with COPD（P<0.05）.A risk prediction model of occurrence of EID in patients with COPD was established based on the four influencing factors，and the C⁃index was 0.808（95%CI 0.745⁃0.870）.Hosmer⁃Lemeshow test showed that χ2=7.258，P=0.164.Calibration chart displayed that predicted probability of the model of EID in patients with COPD was consistent with actual probability.Conclusions：The risk prediction model of occurrence of EID in patients with COPD is simple，convenient and highly applicable.

Keywords    chronic obstructive pulmonary disease，COPD； exercise induced desaturation； influencing factors； risk prediction； nursing

摘要  目的：探讨慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）病人运动性低氧（EID）发生的影响因素，并构建风险预测模型。（剩余8974字）