基于MaxEnt模型的天山雪莲适宜分布区预测及影响因素分析

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中图分类号：Q948.112 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2025）05-1544-13

Abstract：Exploring the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Saussurea inuolucrata and pre dicting future scenarios is crucial for developing efective conservation strategies.This study used the MaxEnt model to predict suitable habitats of Saussurea inuolucrata in Xinjiang through 28 environmental variables and 39 occurrence points. Predictions covered the present （1970—2O00） and future periods （2041-2070 and 2071—21OO），and simulated under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （SSPl26，SSP370，and SSP585）.The results indicated that，under current climate condition，the total suitable habitat area of Saussurea involucrata was 107100km2 ，mainly distributing across the Altai Mountains，Tianshan，Bogda Peak， and Tomurti Peak.Suitable growth conditions included an average monthly precipitation of 15O-2OO mm during the warmest season，thin-layered soil，glacial soil， leached soils，an elevation range of 2800-3800m ，an NDVI of 0.03-0.7 ，and a slope of 50∘-73∘ . These five factors were key constraints influencing its distribution. In future scenario，the suitable habitat areaof Saussurea inoolucrata showed adeclining trend，especiallyunder the SSP585 scenario，where the high-suitable area shrinked from 21 to 16600km2 . However， the primary distribution areas remained unchange. To protect Saussurea involucrata，continuous monitoring of habitat changes and addressing potential future risks were essential.

Key words：Saussurea inuolucrata;MaxEnt Model; Environmental variables;Potential distribution

天山雪莲（Saussureainvolucrata）是高山生态系统中的关键物种之一，具有重要的药用和经济价值。（剩余15847字）