漳河上游土地利用与生态系统服务时空演变及预测

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中图分类号：F301.2；X171.1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-2006（2025）04-0206-09

Abstract：【Objective】This research aims to investigate thespatiotemporal evolution characteristicsof landusedynamics and ecosystemservicesinthecentral Chinariverbasins，andprovideascientific basis forecological environment protection and teritorial space planning in major grain-producing regions.【Method】Based onlanduse changes in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River basin from 20oO to 2O20，this study employed modelssuch as InVESTand PLUS to explorethe spatiotemporal evolutionpatterns of land use and ecosystem services underdiferent scenarios inthe past and futureof the basin.【Result】（1）From20O to2O2O，thebasinexperiencedrapidcultivatedlandreductionand continuous construction land expansion.By 2O35，under the natural development scenario，construction land expanded rapidly，encroachingoncultivated，grassand，andforestland.However，undercultivatedland protectionand ecological protection scenarios，construction land expansion was curbed，efectively preserving cultivatedand forest land. （2）During 2Ooo-2O2O，wateryieldandsoilconservationincreased，whilecarbonstorageand habitatqualitydecreased. High-valueareas for carbonstorage，habitatquality，andsoilconservation were found in the basin'seast-central and southeastermforests，whereaslow-valueareaswereinthesouth-centralconstructionland.Wateryieldexhibitedan opposite spatial patem，decreasing with increasing topographic gradient.（3）The ecological protectionscenario yielded thegreatest ecosystem serviceimprovementsand is suitable forfuture development.【Conclusion】Theecological protection scenario ofers decision-making support for ecological protection and land development in the basin'supper reaches.Futureefortsshouldfocusonresolvingconstructionland-cultivatedlandconflictsandoptimizingtrritorial space development strategies to promote landuse structure transformation toward high ecosystem service provision.

Keywords：land usesimulation；ecosystem services；InVEST model；PLUSmodel；upperreaches of Zhanghe River basin

城镇化的快速发展影响了生态系统服务的供给和分布，且高强度的土地利用导致生态系统服务出现退化[1-3]。（剩余16793字）