基于林分生长和径阶分配模型系统的红松人工林经营优化

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中图分类号：S757 文献标志码：A文章编号：1000-2006（2025）04-0117-11

Abstract：【Objective】A system of stand-level growth modelswith diameter-class disaggregationwas developed for Korean pne （Pinus koraiensis）plantations in Heilongjiang Province tooptimize stand management strategies，providing model supportfordeveloping management schedules and enhancing forest quality.【Method】Basedontheremeasurement datafrom 218 permanent plots in Korean pine plantations in Heilongjiang Provinceduring 198O—2O23，amodel system consisting of models for mortality，domnant height，stand basal areaanddiameter-class disaggregation was constructed. TheWeibullfunction wasused todisaggregate the predictions overdiameterclasses.The parametersofthegrowth models were estimated using the Gaus-Newton methodand seeminglyunrelated regresion.The method of moments was used to recoverthediameterdistributionparametersforthediameter-class disaggregation.Toverifytheapplicabilityof themodel system，thestudyused thediferential evolution（DE）algorithm withamodel system toperformstand-level management optimization tofindtherotationlengththat maximized wood production indiffrent siteindices（11.2，14.2，16.0m）.

【Result】 The components of the dynamic growth model explained over 90% of the variation in the modelling data. The final critical errors for stand mortalityand basal area model obtained usingseemingly unrelated regression were 16.769% and 17.685% ，respectively.When applying the method of moments for parameter estimation of the Weibullequation，the pass rate of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was 96.946% . When using the growth with diameter-class disaggregation for predicting stand volume，using an existing taper model，the critical error was 14.612% .Theoptimizationresults indicated that，for the three stands，the thinning is by 1-3 years later as site index improves by 2m ，with the final harvestagerangingfrom72to75years.【Conclusion】Thegrowthmodelconstructedinthisstudysatisfiesthebasic assumptionsof path-invariance，consistency，and causalityduring management simulations，therebyalowing reliable growth simulations.Integrating themodelwiththeDEalgorithmprovideseffctive forestmanagementprescriptions， offering useful advise for the management decisions of Korean pine plantations.

Keywords：Pinus koraiensis （Koreanpine）；stand growth model；diference equation；stand management decisions

随着我国经济的稳步增长，木材需求持续攀升，供需矛盾愈发突出[1]。（剩余21178字）