江西省县域尺度耕地“非粮化”的时空演变及驱动因素

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中图分类号：F323.211； F301.21 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1671-8151（2025）05-0112-13

Abstract：[Objective]Food securityisacornerstoneof national security.Theincreasing trendofcropland“non-grain produc tion"poses a potential threat to grain production.Jiangxi Province，amajor grain-producing region inChina characterized by complextopography，arobust agriculturalfoundation，andrapid urbanizationpresentsahighlyrepresentativecase forstudying this isue.Methods]Usingcounties inJiangxiProvinceastheresearchunits，thisstudyintegratessocioeconomic，meteorologi cal，and geospatialdatafromOo2toO22.Spatialautocorelationanalysisandthestadarddeviationellisemethodwereap pliedtosystematicallexaminethespatiotemporalevolutionofcropland“non-grainproduction”，whiletheGeographicalDetec tormodelwas employedto identifyitsdominantdriving mechanisms.[Results]（1）Thelevelofcropland“non-grain produc tion”in Jiangxi exhibited a“U-shaped”trend over the study period，with anaverage annual rate of 33.74% ，exceeding the nationalaverage.Spatially，itdisplayedalusteredpaternof“highinthenorthandsouth，lowinthecentralregion”.Norther andsouthernJiangxiwasseverelyafectedareas，whereas thePoyangLakePlainwaspredominantlycharacterizedbylightnongrainproduction.（2）Thespatialdistributionofcropland“non-grainproduction”showed increaseddirectionality，withasouthward shift and greater dispersion of its center of gravity.Significant global spatial autocorelation（Moran’s I>0 ）was observed，and local high-value clusters were consistentlyconcentrated in northern Jiangxi.（3）The urbanizationrate（ q=0，733， ）， proportion of oil crop cultivation area（ q=0.660 ），and GDP per unit land area （ q=0.608 ）were identified as the primary drivingfactors.Factorinteractions werepredominantlynonlinearenhancements，withparticularlynotableinteractionefectsamong percapitacultivatedland area，grain yieldperunit area，andoilcropratio.[Conclusion]Tocurbthetrendofcropland“nongrain production”and ensure food securityand sustainable agricultural development，this studyrecommended implementing land-useclasificationanddiferentiated management，improvinggrain incomesecuritymechanisms，and promotingcoordinat ed development between urbanization and agriculture.

Keywords：Farmlandnon-grainproductionSpatiotemporalevolution，Drivingfactors，eodetector，JiangxiProvince

粮食安全作为国计民生的重点之一，也是国家发展的核心问题[1。（剩余19704字）