1990一2021年中国高血压心脏病疾病负担及年龄-时期-队列研究

打开文本图片集

Study on the Disease Burden and Age-Period-Cohort of Hypertensive Heart Disease in China from 1990 to 2021

JIAShuwei，HONG Yang，ZHANG Bin，YUAN Guili，SHI Jinzheng，ZHANG Zhanshuai

（The Second Wardof theDepartmentof Cardiovascular Medicine，The First Afliated Hospitalof Hebei North University，

Zhangjiakou 075000，Hebei，China）

【Abstract】ObjectiveToanalyzetheseculartrendof disease burdenof hypertensive heartdisease（HHD）in China from1990to 2021，andprovideevidenceforscientificpreventionandcontrolofHH.MethodsBasedontheGlobalBurdenofDiseasedatabas， theage-period-cohortodelasuedtoaalytheidependentectsofgeeriodndohortodatsanddisablitydjustedlifeyar （DALY）ofHHD，andtheNordpredmodelwasusedtopredictthetrendfrom2022 to2030.ResultsFrom1990to2021，thenumberof deathsandDALYduetoHincreased，lthoughage-standardizedatesshowedadownwardtrend.Theage-period-cohortodelaalis indicatedthatolderageasaociatedwithhighermortalityandDALYrates，hilebothperiodandcohortfectsdemonstrateddecliing trends.ProjectiossugesthatbyO，theoverallumberofdathsndDLYmayontiuetose，espiteexpecteddling standardizedrates.ConcusionWhilesubstantialprogreshasbenmadeinthepreventionandcontrolofHHDin China，populatioaging andgrowthoiutseanthgeadtetiosetialrtilalyneddbiely reduce the burden of HHD.

【Keywords】 Hypertensive heart disease；Age-period-cohort model；Nordpred prediction

高血压心脏病是由于高血压长期作用于心脏而导致的心脏结构和功能的病理改变[1]。（剩余8950字）