水热条件对青岛市苹果产量的影响

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中图分类号：S661.1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1002-2910（2026）01－0023-05

Abstract：Based on the apple production data of Qingdao City and the monthly temperature and precipitation data，this study used Pearson correlation analysis，ridgeregression and T-test methods to explore the critical period and key factors of water and heat conditions affecting the apple production in Qingdao City.The results showed that the fruiting period （May） was the critical stage aecting the apple production in Qingdao City，and the precipitation in May was the key factor.The precipitation factor in May had a negative impact on the apple production，while the temperature factor in May had a positive impact.The mean values of water and heat conditions in May were significantly different between the years with high production and the years with low production.The precipitation in Mayand the average minimum temperature in May could be used as theindex factors for apple production loss in Qingdao City.The water and heat indicators for apple production loss in Qingdao City were precipitation in May >54mm or average minimum temperatureinMay <14∘C .When both water and heat indicators were met simultaneously，the risk ofapple production loss was extremely high.

Key words： apple; yield; young fruit period; precipitation; temperature; yield loss

苹果（Malusdomestica）是青岛市第一大水果，产量和果园面积均约占全市水果生产的 20% ，在全市果业中占有重要地位。（剩余6270字）