老年骨科康复病人医院感染影响因素及风险预测模型的构建

打开文本图片集

Abstract  Objective：To explore influencing factors of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients and construct a risk prediction model.Methods：A total of 1 358 elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients were selected as subjects，who were hospitalized in a tertiary grade A general hospital from January，2018 to December，2018.Influencing factors of nosocomial infection in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients was analyzed.And on this basis，a nomogram model of risk of nosocomial infection in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients was drawn by R 3.6.1 software.Finally，the model was verified.Results：Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that Barthel score，hospitalization days，and age were independent influencing factors of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients（P<0.05）.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the Nomogram model of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients was 0.914，with good discrimination，C⁃index was 91.4%， Brier was 0.037，with good consistency and calibration.And its accuracy was 97.8%，its sensitivity was 81.0%，and its specificity was 98.7%.Conclusions：The risk prediction model of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients constructed in this study has good discrimination and good calibration.It can effectively predict the occurrence of nosocomial infections in elderly orthopedic rehabilitation patients.

Keywords    elderly； rehabilitation； nosocomial infection； influencing factors； model construction； nursing

摘要  目的：探讨老年骨科康复病人发生医院感染的影响因素，并构建风险预测模型。（剩余8043字）