基于协整分析的供热管道泄漏定位方法

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中图分类号：TB9;TU995.3 文献标志码：A文章编号：1674-5124（2025）06-0067-08

A leakage location method for heating pipeline based on cointegration analysis

SHI Guanghui¹，CHEN Peng1，SHEN Pengfei1，ZHENG Zhizhong1，WANG Zhu， LI Jiangang¹，LIU Shuai²， ZHANG Qiliang²， TIAN Wenwen² （1.Taiyuan Heating Group Co.，Ltd.，Taiyuan O30oo0，China; 2.SchoolofControland ComputerEngineering，North China Electric Power University，Baoding O710o0， China）

Abstract： To solve the problem of traditional leak localization methods being unable to cope with the nonstationary characteristics of signals and eliminate the impact of changes in operating conditions on algorithms， a heating pipeline leak localization method based on cointegration and vector error corrction models is proposed.Firstly，perform stationarity tests on the pressure signals of each station to obtain the single integer order of the variables; Then，by conducting cointegration analysis on the signal sequence，calculating the cointegration coeficient，constructing a vector error correction model，and calculating the predicted residual of the model; Propose a threshold setting method suitable for variable operating conditions during leak detection， construct dynamic thresholds to extract leak time points，and accurately locate leak points based on the delay time of each station. Through actual pipeline network data testing experiments，the results show that the proposed algorithm can simultaneously analyze the pressure at multiple sites， effectively suppress the response caused by changes in working conditions，accurately extract the corresponding time of pressure sudden changes，and control the error between theactual delay time and the theoretical delaytime within O.77 seconds. The leakage point positioning error can be controlled within 862 meters， which has practical application value. Keywords： heating pipe network; non stationary; cointegration analysis; vector error correction model; leakage location

0 引言

集中供热管网是现代城市的基础设施之一，在其使用过程中，由于自然环境或人为损坏等原因导致管路焊缝缺陷、腐蚀和老化[1，使得泄漏事故频繁发生，造成大量经济和资源损失。（剩余9814字）