个体化预测高血压脑出血病人术后再次出血的Nomogram模型的构建

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The construction of a Nomogram model for individualized predicting postoperative rebleeding in patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage

TAN ShifangChenzhou First People′s Hospital，Hunan 423000 ChinaCorresponding Author  TAN Shifang，E-mail：xczgfybv@163.com

Abstract  Objective：To explore the risk factors of postoperative rebleeding in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage （HICH） and to establish a risk warning model.Methods：A total of 210 HICH patients admitted to our hospital from August 2019 to October 2020 were selected as the research subjects. According to whether the patients had a recurrence of cerebral hemorrhage after surgery，they were divided into a recurrence group （54 cases） and a non-rebleeding group （156 cases）. Patients′ clinical data were collected for single-factor analysis and logistic regression analysis to obtain independent predictive factors，construct a nomogram risk model，and evaluate the predictive effectiveness of the model.Results：Logistic regression analysis showed that patients had systolic blood pressure fluctuations of ≥50 mmHg 24 h after surgery，diastolic blood pressure fluctuations of ≥20 mmHg 24 h after surgery，abnormal coagulation function before surgery，time from onset to surgery <6 h，and preoperative hematoma volume ≥60 mL were the independent risk factors for postoperative rebleeding in HICH patients （P<0.05）. The established nomogram risk model based on risk factors has good discrimination and consistency. Conclusions：The risk warning model constructed based on the risk factors of postoperative rebleeding in HICH patients can provide targeted guidance for evaluating patients with postoperative rebleeding.

Keywords  hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage;rebleeding;risk warning model;Nomogram;risk factors

摘要  目的：探讨高血压脑出血（HICH）病人术后再次出血的危险因素并建立风险预警模型。（剩余7018字）