基于多智能体（MAS）的白洋淀流域生态韧性管理政策仿真与优化

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Abstract： Thisstudyconstructsa policysimulation modelforecolgicalresilience management inthe Baiyangdian Lake Basinusing a Multi-AgentSystem（MAS），integratingpolycentricgoverancetheoryandacomplexadaptivesystemframework tosimulate interactionsamonggovernmententities，enterprises，communities，andecologicalstakeholders.Byemployingadynamic responsibility-authoritymatchingmodelandsynergisticpolicytoolstrategies，theresearchidentifiesoptimizedpathwaysfor combining "strong administrative + weak market" and "weak administrative + strong market" approaches across diverse scenarios. Simulationresultsdemonstratethatintellgentshedulingmodessignificantlyreducethewaterreplenishmentfluctuationcfcient andilegalemissions，validatingthecriticalole technology-institutionsynergyinenhancingecosstemriskresistanceand recoverycapabilities.Thestudyprovidesadynamicallyadaptivedecision-makingframeworkforcross-regionalecological governance.

Keywords：Multi-AgentSystem（MAS）；BaiyangdianLakeBasin；ecologicalresiliencemanagement；policysimulation; responsibility-authority matching

作者简介：周思聪（1984—），男，湖南岳阳人，硕士，主要研究方向为应急救援、防灾减灾;e-mail：32007762@qq.com。（剩余16102字）