基于多批次增长试验的舰空导弹命中概率贝叶斯估计

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中图分类号：E917 文献标志码：A DOI：10.12305/j.issn.1001-506X.2025.03.19

Bayesian estimation of ship-to-air missile hit probability based on multiple batches growth tests

LIU Haobang1，CHEN Tongl，*，HU Taol，LIMinggu 1，2 ，DU Kai³ （1. Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics， Naual University of Engineering， Wuhan 430033，China；2. State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics， Sanya 572000，China; 3.Shijiazhuang Campus，The Army Infantry Collegeof PLA，Shijiazhuang O5oo81，China）

Abstract：The existing ship-to-air missile hit probability estimation methods are mainly studied from the perspective of single batch tests，butfail to consider the characteristics of multiple batches growth tests，which makes it diffcult toaccurately estimatethe hit probability.In this paper，the two-dimensional normal projectile dispersion phenomenonof ship-to-air misileis takenas the entry point，the normal-inverse Gamma distribution is selected as the prior distribution of projectile dispersion parameters based on Bayesian method，and the prior information is merged to makeup for the insufficient data in the smallsample tests.The sequential constraint relationship is established between the projectile dispersion parameter values of each batchof tests，and the Markov chain-Monte Carlo （MCMC） method is combined with Gibbs sampling for Bayesian solution，so as to achieve the purpose of fusing multiple batches growth tests information.The research results show that this method can consider the characteristics of multiple batches growth tests compared withthe existing single batch tests hit probability estimation method，and provide reference for ship-to-air misile hit probability estimation.

Keywords：ship-to-air missile；hit probability；multiple batches growth tests；projectile dispersion; Bayesian；Markov chain-Monte Carlo （MCMC）

0 引言

舰空导弹命中概率试验通常进行多个批次，且每批次试验之后会对舰空导弹性能进行改进，导弹命中概率呈现增长趋势。（剩余16232字）