基于SEER数据库构建预测儿童髓母细胞瘤生存率的列线图及外部验证

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【中图分类号】 R739.41 【文献标志码】 【文章编号】1672-7770（2025）02-0193-08

Abstract： Objective To construct a nomogram model for predicting the survival rate childhood medulloblasma（ MB） based on the Surveillance， Epidemiology and End Results（SEER） database the National Cancer Institute the United States. Methods The data 854 children （ 0-17 years old） with complete clinical information diagnosed in the SEER database from 2000 2021 were collected. Univariate and multivariate COX regression analysis were used determine the independent facrs affecting the prognosis children with MB. The obtained prognostic independent facrs were used construct the nomogram model. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic（ ROC） curve， consistency index（C-index）， prognostic calibration curve， and clinical decision curve analysis（DCA） were used test the predictive ability the model. A tal 32 children diagnosed with MB in from 2017 2024 were collected as an external validation group， and the ROC curve and C-index were used again test the predictive ability the model. ResultsAmong 854 children with MB selected from the SEER database， 531 were male and 323 were female. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent prognostic facrs included hispathological type， surgical method， radiotherapy， chemotherapy， and cerebrospinal fluid dissemination or metastasis （ P<0.05 ）. The above prognostic facrs were used construct a nomogram model. The area under ROC curve（AUC） for predicting 3-year， 5-year， and 10-year survival MB children in the modeling group was 0.669， 0.660， and 0.611， respectively， and the C-index was 0.647（ 95% CI =0.629 - 0.666）. The AUC for 1-year， 3-year and 5-year survival rates in the external validation group were 0.905， 0.836， and 0.754， respectively. The established nomogram model was verified by ROC curve， C-index， prognostic calibration curve and DCA curve， which proved that it had good predictive effect. Conclusions The hispathological type，surgical method， radiotherapy， chemotherapy and cerebrospinal fluid dissemination in children with MB are independent facrs affecting the prognosis children. The nomogram model constructed based on these independent facrs has good predictive performance and clinical practicality.

Key words： medulloblasma； prediction model； SEER； childrer

髓母细胞瘤（medulloblasma，MB）是一种高度恶性的神经外胚层肿瘤，是儿童最常见的恶性脑肿瘤，占所有儿童中枢神经系统恶性肿瘤的 。（剩余11235字）