黄河流域陕西段多尺度人口收缩格局演变及机制

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中图分类号：K901 DOI：10.16152/j. cnki. xdxbzr.2025-04-012

AbstractChina offcially entered an era of negative population growth in 2O22.This paper utilizes data from the fifth，sixth，and seventh national population censuses and applies methods such as spatial autocorrelation analysisand OLS linear regression to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin from 200O to 202O at the city，county，and village scales.On this basis，a multi-scale framework for the mechanisms of population shrinkage in the Shaanxi section of the Yellow River Basin is constructed. The results indicate the following： ① Population shrinkage exhibits spatial heterogeneity at diferent scales，and spatial quantification at higher scales does not represent the spatial dynamics at lower scales. ② In northern Shaanxi，a " T" -shaped shrinkage zone has formed，consisting of an eastern shrinkage belt and a shrinkage zone at the junction of Yulin and Yan’an city. The shrinkage axis in the Guanzhong region primarily radiates outward from the central urban area of Xi'an city and Chang'an District in a concentric diffusion pattern. ③ At the county scale， industrial structure is the fundamental driving force in curbing population shrinkage，while aging and population decline are mutually reinforcing.Provincial-level aggregation and public service levels are correlated with county-level shrinkage. ④ At the village scale，industrial development is the key factor in mitigating shrinkage.Population structure is significantly related to village-level shrinkage，while land intensification，primary education，and geographic clustering are highly correlated with village shrinkage.The findings of this study provide scientific support for the spatial development and protection of the Shaanxi section of the Yelow River Basin and hold practical significance for promoting high-quality development in the region.

Keywordsmultiscale； population shrinkage； Shaanxi section of the Yelow River Basin； pattern evolution;linear regression； shrinkage mechanism

中国已于2022年进人人口负增长时代[1]，识别及引导人口有效收缩成为重要课题[2]。（剩余23299字）