人类活动对黄河中游径流变化影响的定量归因

——以窟野河流域为例

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中图分类号：P333 DOI：10.16152/j. cnki. xdxbzr. 2025-04-009

AbstractThe Yelow River Basin is an important birthplace of the Chinese nation and Chinese civilization， constitutes an important ecological security barier in China，and is also an important region for population activities and economic development，and has a pivotal strategic position in the overall situation of national development and socialist modernization.Climate change and human activities have combined effects on runoff， and it is dificult to distinguish their respectivecontributions to runoffchange.Based on 62 years of climate and runoff data from Wenjiachuan hydrology Station in the Kuye River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellw River from 196O to 2O21，a method based on paired years groups of similar precipitation and potential evapotranspiration was established to quantitatively assess the influence of human activities on runoff. The similar climate premises of the paired year groups were characterized by similar quantities （interannual difference less than 2.0% ）and similar processes （significance level of annual change less than O.O5）. The results showed that，during the study period，the runoffin 2 groups showed a downward trend and the other 2 groups showed an upward trend. Using land use/land cover analysis，the efects of human activities on runoff change in the Kuye River Basin can be wellexplained quantitatively.This method can be combined with the traditional hydrological methods to provide a beter theoretical basis for water resources management in the basin.

KeywordsKuye River Basin； human activities；paired-periods with similar weather condition；runoff； land use

IPCCAR6表明，2011—2020 年全球平均地表温度比1850—1900 年高1.09 C ，比 2003—2012年（AR5评估的时期）高 0.19°C 。（剩余14052字）