基于信息间隙决策理论的可再生能源驱动甲醇模块化生产供应链优化策略

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关键词：甲醇模块化生产；供应链；可再生能源；信息间隙决策理论；不确定性优化；风险决策中图分类号：TQ028.8 文献标志码：A DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1003-9015.2025.04.010

Abstract： Considering the methanol demand uncertainty on the influence of methanol modular production supply chain，on the basisof certainty renewable energy driven methanol modular production supply chainoptimization model，information gap decision theory was introduced.Two uncertain optimization models were constructed for the cost of capital input and operation process，respectively focusing on the robustness and oportunity of scheduling decision.Finally，the methanol modular production supply chain scheduling scheme under diferent risk attitudes was obtainedthrough case analysis，inwhich thereliabilityand effectivenessof the model were verified.Theresults showthat the risk avoidance methanol modular production supply chaincan make the cost no higher thanthe expected cost，while the risk pursuit can exploit the favorable uncertainty and cost the expected cost lower.

Key words： methanol modular production；supply chain；renewable energy；information gap decision theory; uncertainty optimization；risk decision

1前言

甲醇作为工业的重要组成部分和需求日益增长的能源来源[1]，目前主要由化石燃料生产。（剩余12752字）