南北地震带及周边地区地震波速比预测效能评估

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中图分类号：P319 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-0844（2025）05—1221—11

DOI：10.20000/j.1000-0844.20240401001

Abstract： The single-station Wadati method was used to calculate the wave velocity ratio （vP/vS） and investigate its predictive effectiveness for 19Ms⩾6.0 earthquakes occurring between 2010 and 2022 in the North-South seismic belt and adjacent areas. The R -value scoring method was employed to compute R and R0 values for different combinations of parameters，including the calculation radius， prediction radius，and prediction time. The optimal parameters included a prediction time of 24O days and a prediction radius of 160km ，which yielded a maximum R value of 0.397 5 and an R0 value of 0.246 9. vP/vS anomalies derived from single-station observations exhibited significant predictive potential within the North-South seismic belt and adjacent areas， which provides a robust foundation for their application to seismic tracking processes.

Keywords： single-station wave velocity ratio; seismological anomaly； R -value;effectiveness evaluation

0 引言

在中强地震发生前，由于区域构造应力的增强，会导致岩石结构发生变化并出现微破裂，伴随着体积膨胀（即扩容现象），波速也会随之明显下降，其中P波波速下降较大，而S波波速下降较小，进而导致地震波速比的下降，出现波速比异常现象[1]。（剩余10535字）