急性胰腺炎并发低血压的危险因素分析及预测模型建立

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中图分类号：R576.1 文献标志码：A DOI：10.11958/20250456

Abstract： Objective To investigate the risk factors acute pancreatitis （AP） complicated with hypotension and establish a prediction model. Methods From April 2020 to April 2024， 198 patients with AP in our hospital were selected as the research objects. The incidence hypotension during treatment was measured. Patients with hypotension were included in the observation group， and those without hypotension were included in the control group. The risk factors hypotension in AP patients were screened by Logistic regression analysis. R3.5.1 stware was used to establish and verify the prediction model AP complicated hypotension based on the selected risk factors. Results Among 198 AP patients during hospitalization， 88 （44.44% had hypotension. Advanced age， history hypotension， combined hypertension， severity disease， secondary infection and respiratory system damage were the independent risk factors for AP complicated hypotension， and higher body mass index （BMI） was the protective factor P<0.05 ）. The C-index the nomogram prediction model was 0.899， and the AUC for predicting AP with hypotension was 0.899 （95%CI： 0.848-0.937）. The sensitivity was 85.23% ， the specificity was 83.64% ， the Yoden index was 0.689， the Brier score the calibration curve was 0.146 and the calibration slope was 0.735. The risk AP complicated with hypotension predicted by the nomogram model was in good agreement with the actual risk. Conclusion The nomogram prediction model established based on influencing factors demonstrates good discrimination and applicability in predicting AP complicated with hypotension.

Key words： pancreatitis; hypotension; risk factors; nomograms; prediction model

急性胰腺炎（acute pancreatitis，AP）是饮酒、不良饮食、胰腺梗阻等因素单独或共同作用引发的胰腺急性炎症［1-2］。（剩余10295字）