人口城镇化对农业碳排放的影响

——基于户籍制度改革的准自然实验

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：F323.2；F299.21 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673—5617（2025）04—0030-08

Abstract：【Objective/Meaning】Populationurbanizationis thecrucialdrivertorealize thegrenandlow-carbondevelopmentof agriculture.Studying theimpactof populationurbanizationontheagriculturalcarbonemisionsaims toprovideinovative pathways for realizing the comprehensive revitalization of rural areasand achieving the goalof“doublecarbon” 【Methods/Procedures】Basedontheprovincial-levelpaneldatafrom2O0lto2022，thequasi-naturalexperimentofhousehold registration systemreform wasusedto characterizethe populationurbanization，soas to scientifically evaluate the impactof population urbanization onthe agricultural carbon emissions.【Results/Conclusions】The research conclusions showed that： （1） Thehouseholdregistrationsystemreformcouldsignificantlyreduce theagriculturalcarbon emisions. Aftera varietyofrobustness tests，theconclusionastillvalid.（2）Agriulturalscalemanagementandagriculturalmchanzationwretheimportantpathsfor thereformof householdregistrationsystem toreducetheagriculturalcarbonemisions.（3）Theagriculturalcarbonemision reductioneffectofthehouseholdregistrationsystemreformwaseffectiveinthelongtem，butintheshorttem，therewasno agriculturalcarbonemissionreductioneffect.Moreover，theagriculturalcarbonemisionreductionefectof thehousehold registration system reform wasonly significant in the non-major grain producing areas，but not significantin the majorgrain producing areas.

Keywords：reformofthehouseholdregistrationsystem；agriculturalcarbonemissions；urbanizationofpopulation；agricultural scalemanagement；agricultural mechanization

2025年中央一号文件指出要加强农村生态环境治理，深入打好农业农村污染治理攻坚战。（剩余8789字）