碳排放视角下京津冀协同发展的路径探索

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中图分类号：F127 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2097-5465（2025）06-0133-08

Abstract：ThecoordinateddevelopmentofBeijing-Tnjin-Hebeiagglomerationisanimportantmeasuretoaddresstheisueof unbalancedregionaldevelopment，andmostoftheregionishighemisioncities.Thestudyofregionalcoordinateddeveloent canotbeseparatedfromtheperspectiveofcarbonemissions.Basedonthedataofcarbonemissionsandrelated indicators from 2000 to 2021，thisarticleexplores thepathofregional cordinateddevelopmentfromtheperspectiveofcarbonemisions.It clarifiesthehistoricalevolutionofcarbonemissionsiBeijing-Tanjin-Hebeiagglomerationbyusingspatialmeasuementethods， usesregressionanalysistoobtaininfluencingfactorsofcarbonemissons，andfinallyusesthegraymodeltopredictcarbon emisions.TheresultsshowthatthereisastrongmutualinfluencewithinlocalareasinBeijing-Tianjin-Hebeiagglomertion，but theimpactbetweenregionsiselativelysmall；theindustrialsructureisanimportantfactorafectingcarbonemissons，andthe urbanizationrateandenergyintensitycanefectielyinhbitcarbonemissons；resourceendowmentdiferencesleadtodierecesin futurecarbonemisionlevelsandneedtoenhancelinkagerelationships.Therefore，thegovernmentshouldestablisha "consortum"typecontrolmode，strengthen theaccuracyofregionalbarriers tooptimizetheindustrial structure，and forma development situation of resource sharing and key assistance.

Keywords：carbon emissions；collaborative development；gravity analysis；ridge regression；grey model

0 引言

碳减排是我国当前发展的重大课题之一。（剩余9161字）