助力“碳中和”：中国木质林产品 碳储量测算与增长路径

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中图分类号：F416.88;X24 文献标志码：A

文章编号：1000-2006（2026）01-0274-10

Supporting carbon neutrality ： estimation and growth pathways of China's harvested wood products carbon stock

SHI Zhenghuang，HOU Fangmiao

（School of Economics and Management，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 1Ooo83，China）

Abstract：【Objective]In the context of China’s dual carbon goals，this study aims to examine the carbon sequestration capacity andpotential growth pathwaysof harvestedwood products（HWP），withtheintentionofcontributing to international climate negotiations and theachievement ofcarbonneutrality targets.【Method】Basedona comprehensive reviewof carbonaccounting methods for HWPunder the Intergovernmental Panel onClimateChange（IPCC） guidelines，this study adopted the revisedProduction Approach outlinedin the2019 IPCC guidelines.Using this method，thecarbonstock contributionof HWPin China from1961to2O22 wascalculated.Furthermore，the study analyzed keymodel parametersandaccounting rules toproposefeasible pathways for enhancing carbonsequestration. 【Result】（1）The cumulativecarbonstock of China’s HWPreached751.41Mtby2O22，with sawnwood，wood-based panels，and paper products accounting for 269.04，404.96 and 77.41 Mt， respectively. （2）In2021 ，the annual increase in HWP carbon stock offset approximately 1.4% of China's net carbon emissions from energy consumption.Within the forestry sector，the carbon storage of HWP balanced itscarbonemissions，achieving sectoral“carbon neutrality".（3） Under the calculation framework of the revised Production Approach，an increase in paper recycling rates led to greater carbon stock in paper products.However，risingimportsof industrialroundwoodandexportsof semi-finished wood products resulted inanet lossof domestic carbon stock.【Conclusion】China’s HWP carbonstock hasreacheda substantiallevelandstillpossessesconsiderablegrowthpotential.Itcanefectivelysupporttherealizationofcarbon neutralitygoalsand should berecognizedasasignificantaet inclimatenegotiations.Futureeffortsshouldfocuson enhancing the recycling eficiencyof paper，strengthening domestic wood supplyand reserves，and promoting the export of finished wood products to further increase domestic HWP carbon sequestration.

Keywords：carbon neutrality；harvested wood product；carbon stock；production method

“双碳”目标是中国为应对全球气候变化而采取的积极举措[1]，也是中国生态环境发展的重要政策方向。（剩余19129字）