多种政策组合下中国林业高质量发展的系统动力学仿真研究

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中图分类号：S71;F307.2 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-2006（2026）01-0263-11

Abstract：【Objective】The internal mechanism of thehigh-quality forestry developmentsystem is complex，and itis necessary tostrengthentheconstructionof thepolicysystemforhigh-qualityforestrydevelopmentthrough theoptimized configurationofdiferentpolicycombinations tocopewiththecoordinationrequirementsofhigh-qualityforestry development for multiple economic，ecological and social goals.【Method】Based on the new development philosophy，a simulationmodelofhigh-quality forestrydevelopmentsystem wasconstructedfromfourdimensions：scientificand technological innovation，industrialcoordination，people'slivelihoodandgreendevelopment.Thehigh-quality development levelof China’s forestryfrom2O21 to 2O35was simulated underfour policy-oriented scenarios.【Result】（1） China's forestryhigh-qualitydevelopment willreachamedium-high level，andcanevenreachahigh levelundercertain policycombinationsin2O35.（2）Thedevelopmentpotentialofthescenarioof scientificand technological inovation priorityunder theimplementationofasingle policyis the best.（3）Thedevelopment potential ofcombined policies is beter than that of single policies.（4）Asthenumber of policiesaccumulates，the marginal fect decreases. 【Conclusion】Based on priority，technological innovationand green development should be the focus of current policy implementation，whileindustrialrestructuringandtheimprovementof people’swel-eingshouldbepursuedaslong-term objectives.Promotetheimplementationof integrated policies involving multipledepartments toenhance thelevelof highqualityforestrydevelopment.Policymakersshouldcoordinateatthemacro leveltoavoidtheduplicationorconflictof multiple policies.

Keywords：high-quality forestry development;system dynamics;multi-scenario simulation; policy simulation

“高质量发展”是一个具有中国特色的概念，其涉及我国各地区、各领域[1-4]，林业也不例外。（剩余16725字）