石羊河流域径流变化特征及其驱动因素
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中图分类号：P333．1 文献标志码：A doi：10．3969 ／ j．issn．1000－1379．2025．06．006引用格式：，等．石羊河流域径流变化特征及其驱动因素［J］．人民黄河，2025，47（6）：39－45．
Characteristics and Driving Factors of Runoff Changes in the Shiyang River Basin
YU Jianquan1， XIE Fei2， QIN Xiangnan3， GUAN Weijin4
（1．Gansu Water Investment Yintao Co．， Ltd．， Dingxi 743099， China； 2．Gansu Water Resources and Hydropower
Survey and Design Research Institute Co．， Ltd．， Lanzhou 730010， China； 3．School of Water Conservancy andTransportation， Zhengzhou University， Zhengzhou 450001， China； 4．School of Civil Engineering，Lanzhou University of Technology， Lanzhou ， China）
Abstract： In order to deeply explore the characteristics and driving factors of runoff changes in the Shiyang River basin， and provide a scien⁃ tific basis for basin management planning and ecological environment building， this study utilized the runoff data from 1956 to 2019 and ap⁃ plied mathematical statistics to analyze the runoff characteristics， in conjunction with meteorological data to assess the impact of climate change on runoff． The findings reveal that a） a decreasing trend in runoff volumes for the Gulang River， Huangyang River， Zamu River and Jinta River， while the runoff of Dajing River and Xiyang River remains relatively stable． b） The basin exhibits periodic changes over 2 to 10 years and 10 to 30 years． c） Apart from the Dongda River and Xida River， which lack significant abrupt change years， other rivers in the ba⁃ sin have notable abrupt changes in runoff between 1970 and 1990． d） The precipitation variation trends in the Shiyang River Basin are not significant， while the temperature has significantly increased． e） Based on the division of change points， the runoff reduction between the baseline and the change period ranges from 13.78% to 37.43% ， with human activities identified as the key factor causing runoff reduction and changes．
Key words： runoff variation； climate change； Shiyang River Basin
0 引言
根据 IPCC 第六次评估报告（AR6），2011—2020 年全球地表平均温度较 1850—1900 年升高了约 1.09c[1] 。（剩余8997字）
