阿克苏河多时间尺度干支流径流演变规律分析

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关键词：径流演变规律；多时间尺度；干支流；阿克苏河中图分类号：TV121 文献标志码：A doi：10．3969 ／ j．issn．1000－1379．2025．06．005引用格式：，等．阿克苏河多时间尺度干支流径流演变规律分析［J］．人民黄河，2025，47（6）：31－38．

Analysis of Runoff Evolution Patterns on Multiple Timescales in the Main and Tributary Streams of the Aksu River

LI Jiang1， WEI Guanghui1， WANG Luyang1， TANG Fengzhen 2，3，4 ， WANG Yuanjian2，3，4（1．Xinjiang Tarim River Basin Authority， Korla ， China； 2．Yellow River Institute of HydraulicResearch， YRCC， Zhengzhou ， China； 3．Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and EstuaryRegulation， MWR， Zhengzhou ， China； 4．Yellow River Laboratory， Zhengzhou ， China）

Abstract： In view of the issues existing in the current research on runoff evolution in the Aksu River basin， such as a single time⁃scale and insufficient consideration of the sensitivity of sequence length， a variety of methods such as Mann⁃Kendall trend test， Theil⁃Sen Median trend estimation， Pettitt mutation test and wavelet analysis were adopted to systematically study the runoff evolution laws of the main and tributary streams in this basin at different time scales such as inter⁃annual， intra⁃annual and flood events． The results show that the annual runoff of the Taushgan River， Aksu New River and Tailan River increase gradually， while the change of the Kumarak River is not obvious． The periodic oscillation of the four rivers is the most obvious on the 35－year， 55－year， 35－year and 55－year timescale， and the corresponding periods are 21－23 years， 32－35 years， 19－25 years and 36 years respectively． The annual distribution of runoff in the Aksu River basin is uneven， the runoff is larger in summer and autumn， and smaller in winter and spring， and the concentrated period is from June to August． The annual maximum flood peak discharge of the mainstream and tributaries fluctuate greatly， mainly concentrate in July and August． The key periods for flood control are July⁃September， April⁃August， July⁃August and July respectively． The tendency， mutability and periodicity analysis results of the runoff in the Aksu River watershed are all affected by the length of time series．

Key words： evolution law of runoff； multiple time scales； main and tributary streams； Aksu River

0 引言

受气候变化和人类活动等的影响，地球水文循环过程不确定性显著增强，极端洪涝、干旱灾害频发，对自然环境和经济社会发展带来了潜在威胁［1－2］。（剩余11303字）