基于FLUS模型的乌鲁木齐市土地利用时空格局演变模拟研究

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关键词：乌鲁木齐市；土地利用变化;FLUS模型；土地利用转移矩阵；模拟研究中图分类号：F301.24 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168(2025)12-0099-07DOI:10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.12.019

Simulation Study on the Evolution of Spatio-temporal Pattern of Land Use in Urumqicity Basedon FLUS Model

LIANG Jiafeng AYETIGULI·Sidike (XinjiangAgricultural University,Urumqi 83oooo,China)

Abstract:[Purposes] Explore the change pattrms of various types of land use in Urumqi and predict the land use pattrn in 2O3O,so as to provide support for the rational allcation of land resources and improve land use efficiency.[Methods] Using the land use data of three periods in 2O0o,2O1Oand 2020,selecting nine driving factors,with water as the constraint factor,applying the GeoSOS-FLUS model and combining the land use transfer matrix and the dynamic degree of land use for analysis.[Findings] The comprehensive land use dynamics of Urumqi City changed more drastically in over the two 1O-year periods,with construction land exhibiting the fastest growth.Grassand and unused land are the primary land types transferred out and transferred in,respectively,and the conversion between grassand and unused land is drastic.By 2O3O,there willbe no significant change in watershed and forest land,the expansion intensity of construction land and unused land will decrease,and the shrinkage rate of grassand and cropland will continue to slow down.Conclusions] It can be found through comparison that the land use changes in Urumqi in the next 1O years have partially allviated the severe imbalance of land use caused

2O years ago.The results of the study can provide a scientific basis for the land-use allocation in future urban planning.

Keywords: Urumqi City; land use change; FLUS model; land use transfer matrix; simulation study

0 引言

随着人口、资源和环境问题的日益突出，土地利用/土地覆盖变化（Land-UseandLand-CoverChange，LUCC)研究已成为全球变化研究的热点课题[1]。（剩余9159字）