Copula函数分析江苏仪邗地区降雨-潮位的条件风险概率

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Analysis of Condition Risk Probability for Rainfall-Tidal Level in Yi-Han Region of Jiangsu Province Using Copula Functions

WANG Haihang，LI Fan，QIN Zhiqiong， JIANG Xiaolei （College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering，Yangzhou University，Yangzhou 225o09，Jiangsu，China）

Abstract：To predict the flood risk of the Yangtze River main stream during the period of high water level overtopping， basedonthe maximum 3drainfallandtidalleveldataof Yi-HanRegion，JiangsuProvinceduring 1965—2O21，amarginal distribution functionwas constructedandthe parameters were accurately estimated by maximum likelihood estimation method.Archimedean Copula function，eliptic Copula function and PlackettCopula function were selected，and the combinedprobabilitydistributionmodelofrainfall-tidelevelwasconstructedandtheconditionalriskprobabilityofraifalltide level was calculated basedon the graph analysisand root mean square eror.Theresults show that：Copula function caneffectivelyfitthejointprobabilitydistributionofrainfall-tidelevel，andrevealthecorelationbetweenrainfalland tide level. When the recurrence interval of heavy rain is 20a ，the probability that the tide level in the same recurrence period exceeds the design value is 3.35% ，which is less than the probability of the tide level in the same recurrence period，indicating that the rainfall affects the local tide level and there is a correlation between them.

Keywords： rainfall； tidal；edge distribution function； Copula function；conditional probability of risk

我国是遭受暴雨洪涝等灾害侵袭最频繁的国家之一，据统计，大约有2/3的国土面积曾经遭受不同类型以及不同危害程度的洪水灾害[1]，其中，城市暴雨洪涝灾害给城市的经济社会发展和人民的正常生产生活造成了巨大的损失，严重阻碍经济的发展，影响正常的社会秩序，危害人民生命和财产安全，因此，防范城市暴雨洪涝灾害对于确保城市的可持续发展和人民的福祉十分重要[2]。（剩余7388字）