山东省城市用水量变化驱动力分析

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Analysis of Driving Forces for Changes in Urban Water Consumption of Shandong Province

WANG Yaolei 1，2 ，CHEN Huawei 2，3 ， LI Fulin 2，3 ， ZHANG Jian 4 （204号

（1.School of Water Conservancy and Environment，University of Jinan，Jinan 25OO22，Shandong，China; 2.Water Resource Research Institute of Shandong Province，Jinan 25OO14，Shandong，China； 3.Key Laboratory of Water Resourcesand Environment of Shandong Province，Jinan 25oo14，Shandong，China; 4.Dezhou Water Resources Bureau，Dezhou 253O11，Shandong，China）

Abstract：Tofurtheranalyze thedriving forcesof waterconsumption change indiferentcities，basedonthe surveyand statistical dataof urban waterconsumption indicators in Shandong Provincefrom2O09 to2O20，principalcomponentanalysis and grey corelation method were used to reveal the driving forces of urban water consumption changes of Shandong Province.Theresults showthatindustrial structure indicators such as urbanizationrate，ndustrialadded value，percapita grossregional product，and tertiary industryadded value have the greatest impactonthechanges of urban water consumption in Shandong Province.Crop planting structure is an important indicator foroptimizing waterresource allocation.Qingdao Cityhas the highest driving forcescore andthe best water resources allcation.The grey corelation degres of water-saving irigation area，water consumption of state-owned and above-scale industries，annual average water consumptionof urban residentsandannual temperaturewith agricultural，industrial，domesticand ecological water consumptionare 0.871， 0.731，0.92Oand O.82O，respectively，whichare the main driving factors afecting urban water consumptionchanges.

Keywords：urban water consumption；driving force；principalcomponent analysis；grey correlation；Shandong Province

水资源系统具有非线性、复杂性和开放性等显著特点，且与其他系统关系密切[1]。（剩余9114字）