非肌层浸润性膀胱癌患者首次经尿道膀胱肿瘤电切术后两年内复发的影响因素分析及风险预测

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ABSTRACT：ObjectiveTo analyze the risk factors of recurrence after transurethral resection of bladder tumor （TURBT） in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer （NMIBC），and establish a risk prediction model，so as to optimize the clinical detection and management of NMIBC.MethodsA total of 174 patients with initial diagnosis of NMIBC who underwent TURBT in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University during Jan.2020 and Oct.2022 were followed up for 24 months，and were then divided into the recurrence group （n=74） and non-recurrence group （n=100）.After univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression，risk factors of recurrence were identified，a nomogram was established，and the calibration curve was plotted，which was verified with receiver operator characteristic （ROC） curve.ResultsThe 2-yearrecurrence rate was 42.53%.Logistic regression showed high body mass index （BMI），poor differentiation，multiple tumors，and tumor diameter greater than 3 cm were risk factors of recurrence （P<0.05，OR≥1），while immediate postoperative intravesical instillation was a protective factor （P<0.05）.The C-index of the nomogram was 0.893 （95%CI：0.8510.938），the area of ROC curve （AUC） was 0.894 （95%CI：0.8470.941），the sensitivity was 82.4%，and the specificity was 83.0%.ConclusionThe prediction model based on BMI，tumor stage，grade，number，diameter，and immediate postoperative intravesical instillation fits well and can provide reference for predicting the risk of tumor recurrence.

摘要：目的分析非肌层浸润性膀胱癌（NMIBC）患者经尿道膀胱肿瘤电切术（TURBT）后两年肿瘤复发的危险因素，并建立风险预测模型，以帮助临床优化对NMIBC患者的监测及管理。（剩余7962字）