基于潜在结果框架的作战能力测算方法

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中图分类号：E917 文献标志码：A DOI：10.3969/j. issn.1673-3819.2025.06.015

引用格式：，，，等.基于潜在结果框架的作战能力测算方法[J].指挥控制与仿真，2025，47（6）：110-115.LINH，BUXJ，CHCtalAobatcabilityeasureetmethodsedhotetltcofreworkJ.ondol&Simulation，2025，47（6） ：110-115.

Abstract：Addressingthechalengeof quantifying combatcapabilities incomplexmilitary scenarios，this study proposesa novelcapabilitymeasurementmethodbasedon the potentialoutcomes framework．Thisappoach firstdefinetheobject tobe evaluatedasaninterventionvariableandselectsobservablemetricsthatdirectlyreflectoperationalefectivenessasoutcome variables.Next，aausalgaphisostructedenompassingtheintervention，combatcapabilityandoperatioalectiveness，therebyexplicitlyestablishing thecausal pathwaysbetweenabstractcombatcapabilitiesandmeasurableefectiveness indicators.Finall，throughcausaleffectinferenceandstatisticalsignificancetesting，wetransformtheproblemofmeasuring combatcapabilityintoafunctionofefectivenessindicatorsCaseanalysisdemonstratesthattheproposedmethod，byutilizing effctiveness indicatorsasameasurement tol，canachieveindirectquantificationofcombatcapabilities，oferingavaluable reference for solving the quantification problem of combat capabilities.

Key Words：military assessment；combat capability； joint operations；potential outcome framework

在现代军事评估领域，准确测算作战能力是制定行动方案、优化资源配置和评估行动效果的关键环节。（剩余9435字）