1990一2021年中国心房颤动/心房扑动疾病负担及未来15年疾病趋势预测

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【Abstract】ObjectiveToanalyzethediseaseburdenofatrialfibrilation/atrialfluterinChinafrom199Oto2O21andprojectits trendsverthenext15years（202—2036），providingareferenceforgovermentsandpublichealthagencies toadjustpreventionand controlstrategi.ethdsDataorevalececdence，eats，ndsabilitydustdlifeaD）relatedtrallo/ atrialflutteinCinawereextractedfroteGlobalBurdenofDiseaseStudydatabaseJoipontregesionaalysisasplodto calculate heanalprcentagechangeandaverageaualpercetagechange.Teautoregressiveintegratedovingaverage（ARA）odel wasusedtoprojectthrdsoftrialillioatrialfuteininf2t6Decomposioaalysisasoucdetify thekeydriversunderlingtheobservedtrendsindiseaseburdenfrom1990to021.ResultsFom1990to2O21，thenumberofprevalent cases，incidentcases，eaths，ndALYaswellastege-standardizedprevalenerate（ASPR）adgestandardzediideeate （ASIR）of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter in China showed upward trends，with increasesof 237. 24% ，198. 83 % ，293. 50 % ，225. 02% ， 14. 48 % ，and 5. 37% ，respectively.Incontrast，theage-standardized mortalityrate（ASMR）and age-standardizedDALYrate（ASDR） declined by 12.17 % and 3.77% ，respectively.Except for slight increases in ASMR and ASDR among males compared with 1990，the trends in otherindicatorswithnothsexsugoupswereconsistentwiththoseofthoverallpopulation.ThARIAmodelpojectedtaty36， ASPR and ASIR would increase by 18. 04% and 74. 41% ，respectively，relative to 2O21，while ASMR and ASDR would remain relatively stable.ExceptfoaprojddelieinASamongfemalesetrendsinothiicatorswitothsxsubouseesiilartooef theoverallpoplatioDecompositionaalysisidifidopulatiogingasepriardriveroficreassinprevalencideed DALYrates，heasidemiologialangehinfctouengoalityotetiallorbutigtouctioiali ratesamngbothsexesandinincideceamongfemales.ConclusionThecurrentbrdenofatrialfibrilation/atrialfluttinCinais substantialadisojetedtoeasoertt15arsinthingoplatioiispeatietoactielyrootegfor aialfibrilislaosabsdddosdolsdetet strategies to further reduce the associated disease burden.

【Keywords】Atrialiilltiourdenfisese;Jnpntregessondelanalysis;utoregressieitegatedoingaveeoel Decomposition analysis

心房颤动（atrialfibrillation，AF）是最常见的持续性心律失常，能够显著增加死亡和卒中风险，严重影响患者生活质量。（剩余11898字）