生态补偿与碳汇交易协同视角下森林资源多目标管理研究

——基于系统动力学与博弈论模型分析

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中图分类号：F326.2；X196 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1673-338X（2025）3-033-15

Abstract：Asafundamentalcomponentofterrestrialecosystems，forestresourcesplayanindispensableroleinmaintaingglobal ecologicalbalacendpromotingsstaiablesoionoicevelopntHowverintheprocsofina'sdustraltioforst resourcesarefcingseverechaenges：thetraditionaldevelopmentmodelcannolongermetthneedsoftheneweraandeforest ecosystemhasbensigniiantlyimpactedTakinganmingCityascase，thispapequantitativelyasessedthesnersticcttween ecologicalcompensatioandcarbonsinktradingthoughasystemdyamicsodelingnddevelopedtripartiteevolutionaryemodel toexaminethestrategicinteractionmechanismamongthegverment，enterprisesandforestfarmers，soastoprovideasientific foundationforpolicyformulation.Teresultsshowedthat：Systemdynamicssimulationrevealedthatunderthesynergisticsnario the forest area would increase by 7.8% in2050， 5.2% higher than the baseline scenario.The carbon storage would increase by 54.4% under the synergistic scenario， 37.9% higher than baseline scenario.The forest farmers'income would increase by 89.5% under the synergistic scenario， 66.2% higher thanbaselinescenario.This indicated thatthe synergistic development strategyhadobviousadvantages in enhancing ecologicalandconomicbenefitsofforestresouces.（2）Gmetheoryanalysisidentidtat"strongsupervision-highinvesmentjoit protection"wasastablerategombinatio，ndkeyfactorssuchascologicalcompensationsandardsndcarbopricevolatlityhad significantimpactonthequlibrumresults.Teinovationofthispaperasthatforthefirstime，tesystemdyamicsandteh partyevolutionarygamemodelwerecombinedtorealizethequantitativeanalysisofthesynergisticefectofecologicalcompensation andcarbonsinktadingandtein-depthaalysisoftheinteractiomechanismoftemainstrategies，whichroketroughthelitatios fasingleresearchmethodBasedontesefindings，policmpcationswereputforward：stablisingcolaboratiemechanstwen ecologicalcompesatiodarbosinktradingevelopngoveranemodelof"stronupevisioigiestet-toteti， and creating a dynamically adjustable policy toolkit.

Keywords：forestresource management；systemdynamics；evolutionarygame theory；ecologicalcompensation；carbonsink trading；policy synergy

1引言

随着我国对优质林产品需求的持续增长，提升森林资源管理水平已成为推进林业生态化建设、保障生态安全的核心路径。（剩余17739字）